Where are the key election battlegrounds in London? – BBC News

The dominance of Labour in the capital is such that further progress seems both limited and already factored in.

The capital cannot – and will not – be where the Tory machine invests much of its hope and energy.

Such is the dominance of Labour in London, it currently holds two-thirds of the capital’s 73 MPs and controls two-thirds of its 33 councils.

With the re-election of Sadiq Khan, the party also has a third successive mayoral victory under its belt.

So its national focus will be well beyond the M25.

Recent polling and electoral history instead suggests London has the capability to entrench any potential Labour majority secured in the harsher terrain of the Midlands and Scotland.

At one basic level, the Tory troops are thin on the ground and seriously demoralised.

In the worst Conservative imaginings, the party might lose a dozen or so of their 20 seats and be left with only a handful of representatives in the city of the national seat of government.

If you want to identify key battlegrounds, a good place to start is where Tory municipal citadels fell in the seismic local results of 2022.

In the borough of Barnet – for two years now Labour-run – the Tories are very vulnerable in the three constituencies of Hendon, Finchley & Golders Green and Chipping Barnet.

One clue to the stacked odds may be that the current MPs in the first two of these – Matthew Offord and Mike Freer – have decided to stand down.

Look at the borough of Westminster too where the Tory MP for Cities of London and Westminster – Nickie Aiken – is also leaving, fuelling that sense of Labour momentum right at the heart of the capital.

Assuming this is a story of how much further the Tories could fall in London then there are prominent figures potentially facing the exit door including former Tory leader Iain Duncan-Smith in Chingford and Woodford Green and Greg Hands – currently Minister for London – in Chelsea and Fulham.

But if Tory hopes look forlorn – in the capital at least – they will cling to what they can, primarily the economy.

And while we may see this as a Labour-Tory battle, there are opportunities for others.

The Liberal Democrats think it is they who can gain from Tory woes and pick up seats in south-west London.

The Green Party recently maintained its three seats in the London Assembly election this month while Reform also gained a seat, their first electoral foothold in the capital.

With signs of brighter prospects ahead and an expectation of the easing of cost of living pressures, the Tories might have a chance to argue that confronted by the worst possible recent challenges of disease and war, their stewardship and experience have seen them through.

Could they also be banking on a bounce from the footie, with expectations high for England in Euro2024 which will be at the half-way stage?

Polling day of 4 July is a scheduled rest day for the tournament. So no distractions.