VIX Notches Its Longest Slide Since October 2015: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — Stocks saw their November rally fade, with traders awaiting Jerome Powell’s take on Wall Street’s dovish narrative. Treasuries rose in a busy week for government sales.

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Amid signs of buyer exhaustion, the S&P 500 rose only 0.1%, while still notching its eighth straight up day. Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — saw its longest slide since October 2015. Ten-year yields fell below 4.5% after a $40 billion auction — despite mixed metrics, which included a slightly higher-than-anticipated rate of 4.519%: a sign that demand fell short of expectations. Thirty-year rates hit the lowest in over a month. Brent oil settled under $80.

Treasury sales are exerting a growing sway over stocks. That’s the take from Citigroup Inc. data showing the S&P 500 has moved about 1% in either direction on auction days since the start of 2022, eclipsing the prior decade’s average. Their analysis leaves traders on high alert for Thursday’s $24 billion sale of 30-year bonds.

Wall Street also kept a close eye on Fedspeak. Speaking briefly on Wednesday, Powell didn’t comment on the outlook for rates. He’ll have more time to express his views Thursday during a panel on policy challenges.

“It will be interesting to hear if he makes any comments about the recent move in longer-term interest rates,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “If his tone is a bit more hawkish than it was last week, it could be a catalyst for the kind of ‘breather’ in the markets we’re thinking could/should take place.”

Read: Analysts Who Cried Recession Are Doing It Again: Surveillance

Swap traders are pricing in almost no chance of an interest-rate increase in December, and predict the current level of the Fed’s benchmark rate — 5.25% to 5.5% — will mark the peak of the tightening cycle.

Even if central banks were of the view that rates could fall next year, it would be unrealistic to expect them to say so at this stage as it would confuse and undermine their message that rates must stay higher for longer, according to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda.

“We are continuing to see sluggish trade in equity markets on Wednesday, with investors battling hawkish commentary from central banks against downbeat economic expectations and speculation around rate cuts next year,” Erlam noted.

UBS Group AG strategists expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 around 4,600 points — implying an upside of only about 5% from current levels — as they see weaker growth hurting revenues. Profit margins face headwinds including negative operating leverage, sticky wages, deteriorating pricing power and rising interest expense, Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey wrote.

Meantime, Hoisington Investment Management Co.’s chief economist Lacy Hunt sees the recent retreat in Treasury yields as the start of a rally that will gain steam once the US economy careens into a hard landing.

For the bond market, “the cloud is breaking because the economy is heading into a hard landing,” Hunt said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “But it’s a process that will take time. The US economy has very serious difficulties” that will “be with us for a long time in the future.”

Corporate Highlights:

Walt Disney Co., embroiled in another fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz, posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and said it will seek an additional $2 billion in cost savings.
Arm Holdings Plc, delivering the first earnings report since its initial public offering, gave a disappointing sales forecast as the company contends with a smartphone slump and uncertain timing for new licensing deals.
Lyft Inc. reported third-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates while giving a tepid sales outlook for the holiday period.
Instacart reported better-than-expected earnings in the third quarter showing modest growth in online grocery orders and assuaging some investor concerns about the health of its underlying business.
Eli Lilly & Co. won US approval for its diabetes drug to treat obesity, unlocking blockbuster sales potential in a market that’s expected to hit $100 billion by 2030.

Key events this week:

Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges, Thursday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
The MSCI World index was unchanged

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0710
The British pound was little changed at $1.2288
The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.99 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $35,630.73
Ether rose 0.2% to $1,896.3

Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.49%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.62%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.24%

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.3% to $75.59 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1% to $1,949.67 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Elena Popina, Elizabeth Stanton, Alexandra Semenova and Denitsa Tsekova.