Germany at risk of negative power prices over Easter

(Montel) German spot prices could fall below zero over the Easter holiday amid lower demand and higher wind output, with the highest probability for negative hours seen on Monday, Montel’s Energy Quantified (EQ) data showed on Thursday.

Share:

URL has been copied to clipboard

Hourly prices could drop below zero from 13:00-15:00 CET on Sunday and Monday, according to a forecast from EQ.

The lowest price on Monday could be EUR -13.90/MWh from 14:00-15:00, while the hour before should average at EUR -9.56/MWh. On Sunday, prices could drop to EUR -3.73/MWh and EUR -1.90/MWh during the same hours.

On Sunday, German power demand should average 40.8 GW, which would be 0.9 GW below the norm, and it should drop to 38.3 GW on Monday, 3.6 GW below, according to EQ.

“The risk is biggest on Monday,” said a German trader. “The solar forecast may be a bit tricky that day due to the occurrence of Sahara dust but we will certainly have some more wind.”

Indeed, German wind power generation should average 29.9 GW on Monday, which would be 8 GW above the norm, according to EQ.

However, solar power should average 6.3 GW, which would be 3.4 GW lower than usual, EQ data showed.

Solar uncertainty
A University of Athens forecast estimates near-ground dust concentrations of up to 400 micrograms per cubic metre in Germany on Monday due to winds that have picked up particles from the Sahara.

The typical level is zero micrograms. The dust can meet a layer of air with relatively high humidity and cause cloud formations.

The Sahara dust could mean that actual solar power generation turns out lower than forecast as not all models could incorporate the dust levels.

The day-ahead price forecast for Sunday and Monday last stood at EUR 37.77/MWh and EUR 33.84/MWh, according to EQ.

“Forecasts are a bit tricky because a lot of Sahara dust is also predicted for the weekend. The solar forecast could be a bit too high,” the trader added.