EU membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova

DRIVING THE DAY: EU ENLARGEMENT       

HAPPENING TODAY — COMMISSIONERS WANT MEMBERSHIP TALKS WITH UKRAINE: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her 26 College colleagues meet this morning to discuss the progress Ukraine and nine other countries have made in their quests to join the EU.

Green light for Ukraine and Moldova: The commissioners’ heads of Cabinet, who gathered for their weekly Hebdo coordination meeting on Monday, already agreed on the big questions that will be covered in today’s enlargement report: They will recommend EU leaders open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova — under the conditions that the countries make rule-of-law reforms, officials told Playbook.

Good news for Tbilisi, too: They will also recommend that EU governments grant candidate status to Georgia, two officials said.

Sarajevo holding its breath: However, the heads of Cabinet failed to agree on whether to open accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina, the officials said, adding commissioners will have to decide today whether to grant Sarajevo the same wish as Kyiv and Chişinău — or to recommend opening talks at some later stage, as long as it makes reforms on the rule of law.

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Controversy: Rumors that the Commission was going to give Sarajevo the green light caused a stir among several EU countries, who argued it had backslid on the rule of law and democratic principles.

Another step: More than a symbol of EU commitment to Ukraine, the opening of accession negotiations with Kyiv is a necessary step for EU membership. But it’s also just that — one more step on a long and winding road. Following today’s recommendation, EU countries will decide on opening accession negotiations in December, as Playbook reported.

Reality check: Officials and diplomats stress that the opening of negotiations is no guarantee of EU membership — “just look at Turkey,” as one senior diplomat said. Negotiations with Ankara started in 2005, but are now in the deep freeze.

It’s not for tomorrow (or even 2030): Another official pointed out that the decision to open talks with Ukraine was highly political, considering it’s at war and its borders, for the moment, unstable. Von der Leyen has already said she will not endorse a target date, after Council President Charles Michel called for Ukraine to join by 2030.

What about us? Countries in the Balkans, which have been waiting years for accession negotiations to begin, are asking why they aren’t getting the same privileged treatment as Ukraine and Moldova.

Controversial question: The Cabinet chiefs of the 27 commissioners were unable to agree on one country: Bosnia and Herzegovina. Some officials said the Commission could be accused of double standards if it opened accession negotiations with Kyiv but not with Sarajevo.

Not there yet … but: While neither Kyiv nor Sarajevo are ready when it comes to the rule of law and transparent authorities, diplomats said, they noted that while Ukraine has made efforts to move toward EU standards, the situation in Bosnia has deteriorated and it should therefore not be rewarded.

NOW READ: My colleague Barbara Moens writes today on this major moment for Ukraine — and notes that just as the EU pulls the country closer, the U.S. is loosening ties.

NOT EVERYBODY’S HAPPY: Some countries such as France and Portugal have pitched a “gradual” accession for Ukraine, arguing it could start by participating in certain fields. Some officials in the Commission wanted that approach to be reflected in the enlargement report, but were disappointed with the result.

‘Timid’ approach: One senior Commission official who has seen the enlargement package ahead of its presentation said he found von der Leyen’s reflection to be quite “timid,” arguing expectations were high that she would find an innovative solution to grant Ukraine some quick wins with gradual enlargement steps that would avoid impatience from its citizens, who have been counting on the EU’s support while resisting Russia. 

The pitch: “There are many ways by which you can gradually include these countries and Ukraine,” the official said, listing the customs union, the monetary union, but also partial access to the single market, which could be accelerated by excluding food and agriculture first.

Gandalf vibes: The official added that a worrying trend was emerging, which was seen during the late 1990s when member countries were also debating enlargement. “We’re talking again about reforming our governance process after enlarging the Union, but if von der Leyen thinks this will work out better with 32 member states than 27, I’m afraid she’s mistaken,” the official said, adding that capitals should be “confronted” with their contradictions on the enlargement process.

FOCUS ON PORTUGAL       

COSTA RESIGNS OVER CORRUPTION INVESTIGATION: António Costa resigned as Portugal’s prime minister Tuesday as it became public that he is being investigated in a corruption probe. Police raided his official residence and offices Tuesday.

Who me? In a news conference, Costa said he was “surprised” to learn “a criminal case has already been or will be initiated against me,” and insisted he’d had nothing to do with any “illicit or reprehensible act.”

What’s next: President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will now have to decide whether to dissolve parliament and call a new election, or choose a new PM.

Happening today: The office of the presidency confirmed that party leaders will be summoned to meet today, while the Council of State, an advisory body to the president, is expected to meet Thursday. Aitor Hernández-Morales takes a look at what it all means, and whether an election is looming.

And what of Brussels? Costa’s name had been circulating in Brussels as a favorite to take over the Council presidency from Charles Michel next year, under a division of power where the Commission presidency would go to the center-right EPP and the Council presidency to the center-left S&D. That scenario is now highly in doubt as long as the investigation into Costa continues.

EU ECONOMY       

EUROGROUP FOCUS ON COMPETITIVENESS: The finance ministers of countries that have adopted the euro as their currency — aka the Eurogroup — will today discuss the macroeconomic situation of the eurozone, the health of the banking sector and competitiveness.

Worrying signs: A stuttering economy in Europe’s powerhouse Germany, increased energy costs since Russia cut natural gas deliveries, and a drop in foreign direct investment have businesses and leaders worried.

LESS INTERVENTION, MORE SINGLE MARKET: In a message ahead of the 2024 EU election, the BusinessEurope lobby will today urge political leaders to “put competitiveness at the forefront” during the next legislature.

A warning: “Europe’s declining attractiveness for investment needs to be addressed,” the association of business groups will warn today, reminding leaders that “having a strong economy is necessary to defend our European way of life and European interests abroad.”

5 long years: “After 5 years … focused on regulating” green and digital policies, “after 5 years of rising state intervention in the economy which led to a marked increase in public expenditure,” and “after 5 years, during which the level-playing field in the single market has been weakened by crisis-related exemptions,” it’s time to change course, the lobby warns.

Instead: The EU should now focus on equal enforcement of all those new regulations across EU countries, it should reduce debt through growth rather than new taxes, and should make sure the single market is strengthened rather than further undermined by national governments, the European companies say.

Don’t overdo it on economic security: If the EU economy retreats behind its borders, “Europe would become poorer, less competitive and weaker in the world scene,” says the group, adding that “de-risking takes time and economic security measures need to be carefully calibrated to avoid a negative impact on Europe’s competitiveness.”

Or on regulation: “The developments of crucial future oriented sectors such as biotech and AI in Europe is held back by overly complex approval procedures and over prescriptive regulations.”

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TECH CORNER       

TIKTOK WOOS EUROPE: TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is leaving Brussels for Paris today, where he will meet French President Emmanuel Macron this evening. While in Brussels, the top executive of the Chinese-owned video app met Commission Vice President Věra Jourová, Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton and data protection and antitrust chief Didier Reynders, among others.

TikTok’s readout: The firm’s Vice President for Public Policy Theo Bertram touted “very constructive discussions” on topics including teen safety and the battle against hate speech, my Morning Tech colleagues report this morning.

EU readout: Jourová’s office in its readout said: “Chew set out that TikTok defines Hamas as a terrorist organisation, which means that posts praising the organisation are banned on the platform.” It added that “TikTok said that with a mix of AI moderation and more than 6,000 human moderators focused on European content it had removed millions of posts” in the past month.

Stay tuned for more: Playbook spoke with Jourová on Tuesday just after the meeting with the TikTok chief, as well as a separate catch-up with X’s Head of Global Government Affairs Nick Pickles. Full rundown in Thursday’s Playbook.

AND SPEAKING OF JOUROVÁ: When the Commission veep sat down with Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing for dinner mid-September in Beijing, she managed to secure a win, my colleague Stuart Lau writes in to report. Jourová confronted Zhang with Beijing’s restrictive control over data flows, which prohibited EU companies from transferring any “important” data generated in China, according to an EU official with knowledge of the discussion. Zhang, as it turned out, was ready to make concessions.

Beijing budges: “You could feel that something clicked,” the EU official said. “The vice premier told her he understood the proposal makes sense, and asked the relevant authorities to take the matter forward.” The same issue was also raised shortly after by EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis — though his counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, is not the one calling the shots on data laws in the Chinese system, according to the official.

A few weeks later, China made the relevant revisions to the laws to reverse the burden of proof, allowing most data stored in China to be transferred out of the country unless expressly excluded.

Curious courtesy: While Brussels wasn’t the only one making the complaint, Beijing made sure to signal it was basically responding to the EU’s concerns, including via the EU Chamber of Commerce in China (which sent Jourová a thank-you letter, stating: “We are pleased to note that the Chinese side seems to have listened to these concerns.”)

Pat on the back for EU influence: “For sure there’s a lot of self-interest for China, where there’s a sharp drop of foreign direct investment which China desperately needs,” the above official said. “But if you look at the timing, it’s clear China made the changes shortly after the meetings with Jourová and Dombrovskis.”

ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR       

NETANYAHU’S MISCALCULATION: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been “destroyed emotionally” and is in a state of “nervous breakdown” over the security failures that led to Hamas’ October 7 attack, and is now miscalculating by preparing to take overall control of Gaza’s security, according to former PM Ehud Olmert.

‘Mr. Bullshit’: In an interview with POLITICO’s Jamie Dettmer, Olmert described Netanyahu as “working all his life on the false pretence that he is Mr. Security. He’s Mr. Bullshit.” Olmert added: “Every minute he is prime minister he is a danger to Israel. I seriously mean it. I am certain the Americans understand he is in bad shape.” 

Not in Israel’s interest: Olmert also said “It’s not in Israel’s interests to oversee the security of Gaza,” but rather “it is in our interests to be able to defend ourselves in a different way than we did before the October 7 attack.” Read Jamie’s full interview here.

MAN WITH A PLAN: In an opinion article for POLITICO, British MP Tobias Ellwood argues that Israel’s response to the attacks “looks like pure vengeance,” and says “we should also acknowledge some uncomfortable truths for all sides.” Ellwood, a former lieutenant colonel, puts forward a plan for Gaza — read it here.

HOPE FOR HUMANITARIAN PAUSES: The Biden administration is confident Israel has moved, ever so slightly, closer to its view that there must be humanitarian pauses throughout the war against Hamas. Axios reported Tuesday that President Joe Biden had suggested a three-day pause in hostilities. My U.S. colleague Andrew Ward reports that, according to two U.S. officials, Netanyahu has closed the gap between Israel’s position and that of its closest ally.

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IN OTHER NEWS       

BIDEN-XI MEETING: U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping plan to hold bilateral talks on November 15 in San Francisco, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum leaders’ meeting, Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported overnight, citing a senior U.S. official. If the meeting goes ahead, it would be the first face-to-face for the two presidents in a year.

G7 FOREIGN MINISTERS VOW SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE IN TOKYO: As foreign ministers of the world’s seven biggest rich democracies meet in Japan, the EU’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell will urge continued support for Ukraine. As the EU prepares its 12th sanctions package against Russia, Borrell will ask G7 countries to cooperate on the new measures to make them more effective, an official close to him told Playbook.

More EU aid for Palestinians: On the Israel-Hamas war, Borrell will warn about the worsening situation for civilians in Gaza and announce a further €25 million in EU humanitarian aid, as well as an additional €10 million in EU funding for the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA.

IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE: New data from EU monitoring service Copernicus out this morning finds that 2023 is virtually certain to become the warmest year on record. The global mean temperature for January to October this year was 1.43 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

BELGIUM AND THE NETHERLANDS ARE DRUGS HOTSPOTS: Belgium and the Netherlands are still hotspots for drug-related violence, according to a study published Tuesday by the Flemish Peace Institute, which says that the center of smuggling has shifted from the Iberian Peninsula to Antwerp and Rotterdam in the past few years.

Illegal guns: The report identifies the fight against illegal weapons as a policy priority. “If we want to move towards an effective approach to drugs, attention to the role of firearms is essential. The European Union has had this as a real policy priority for years, but unfortunately some member states, such as Belgium for example, haven’t,” said Nils Duquet, director of the Flemish Peace Institute.

Meanwhile, Belgium’s drug gangs want their coke back: While the Netherlands has the ability to incinerate any cocaine it seizes the same day, Belgium doesn’t — and its stashes of confiscated drugs are becoming a target for criminals looking to steal them back, writes Pieter Haeck.

AGENDA       

— Eurogroup meeting. Arrivals at 1:30 p.m. … press conference after, timing TBC. Watch.

— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

— European Parliament’s plenary session in Brussels resumes at 3 p.m. Watch.

— European Parliament President Roberta Metsola opens the exhibition of “War-damaged Ukrainian ambulance from the Kharkiv region” at Station Europe at 1 p.m. … meets the UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador Cate Blanchett, who will also address the Parliament at 2:15 p.m. … presides over the opening of the part-session at 3 p.m.

— NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meets with the President of Hungary Katalin Novák. Press conference at 5:30 p.m. Watch.

— High Representative Josep Borrell is in Japan to participate in the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting.

— Commission Vice President Věra Jourová gives a closing speech at the International AI Summit at 5:15 p.m. Watch.

— Weekly European Commission College meeting, followed by a press conference with Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner Oliver Várhelyi on the 2023 enlargement package and the new Growth Plan for the Western Balkans. Watch.

— Commission Vice President Dubravka Šuica receives Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib … delivers a keynote speech at the event “Croatia: 10 years in the EU, the Schengen area and the Eurozone,” organized by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.

— Cohesion and Reforms Commissioner Elisa Ferreira is in Tenerife, Spain; Attends the 28th Conference of Presidents of the Outermost Regions … meets bilaterally with President of Canary Islands Fernando Clavijo, and President of the Azores José Manuel Bolieiro.

— Environment Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius receives the organizers of ECI Save Cruelty Free Cosmetics and the Irish Farmers Association.

— Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness meets with a group of students taking part in Bloomberg’s Women in Finance Initiative.

— European Economic and Social Committee high-level conference on National Recovery and Resilience Plans … attended by EESC President Oliver Röpke, Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit and Vice President of the Parliament Evelyn Regner. Program here.

BRUSSELS CORNER       

TRAIN STRIKE STILL ON: The SNCB strike has kicked off, and runs until Thursday. More info here.

JEWISH SITES GET MORE PROTECTION: Belgian Interior Minister Annelies Verlinden instructed the federal police to deploy additional patrols in Brussels and Antwerp to protect the Jewish community and institutions, following a threat assessment.

FLEMISH MINISTER RESIGNS: Bart Somers, Flemish deputy minister president and interior minister, announced his resignation on Monday evening to focus on his other role as mayor of Mechelen. He will be succeeded by the former Chair of Open VLD Gwendolyn Rutten.

YOU’LL BE DRUG TESTED IF YOU’RE IN A CRASH: The Belgian Mobility Minister Georges Gilkinet has announced that three-stage drug tests, along with the usual alcohol test, will now be mandatory for drivers…