China and Russia vie for soft power influence in Central Asia

China and Russia vie for soft power influence in Central Asia

Central Asia has always been a coveted region, its strategic importance dating back to the Great Silk Road, which bridged the East and West, enabling the exchange of both material and cultural treasures. 

Today, its geopolitical and geo-economic importance remains undiminished, with major global powers such as China, Russia, and the United States, alongside regional actors like Türkiye, Iran, and India, vying for influence. The 21st century has introduced new dynamics to this age-old contest, fueled by the region’s vast natural resources, its role as a burgeoning market, and its pivotal geographical position as a buffer between competing powers.

Historically, Central Asia has been a battleground for various empires—the Turks, Huns, Persians, Arabs, Mongols, Russians, and Chinese—all seeking dominance over its strategic cities along the Silk Road. These cities were not just trade hubs but also centers of cultural and religious influence. 

Post-Soviet dissolution, the global competition focused on its energy wealth, evolving now into cultural diplomacy and soft power strategies. Institutions like Russia’s Rossotrudnichestvo and China’s Confucius Institutes aim to deepen influence through education and cultural ties, shaping Central Asia’s future amidst international interests.

Battle for Hearts and Minds

The term “Battle for Hearts and Minds” encapsulates the strategic use of cultural diplomacy and soft power by global powers amid geopolitical competition. The academic community debates its precise definition, with some defining it as the promotion of national culture abroad. Others align it with Joseph Nye’s concept of soft power, which emphasizes cultural institutions, museums, and storytelling to foster understanding and prevent conflicts.

Soft power, coined by Joseph Nye in the late 20th century, refers to a nation’s ability to influence others through non-coercive means such as culture and values. In contrast to hard power, which relies on coercion, soft power operates through attraction and indirect influence. States increasingly prioritize developing their soft power strategies to bolster global appeal and achieve national objectives.

China’s Approach

China historically prioritized economic and military strength over soft power, but by the late 2000s, it recognized the need for a robust cultural strategy. General Secretary Hu Jintao highlighted this shift in 2007, prompting significant investments in cultural diplomacy alongside economic initiatives.

Compared to South Korea and Japan, which use pop culture to bolster soft power, China’s approach is state-controlled and multifaceted, tightly integrating economic strength with cultural influence. China ranks fifth globally in the 2023 Global Soft Power Index, showcasing its extensive international impact through cultural exchanges and economic cooperation.

Key to China’s strategy is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which enhances economic ties, secures energy resources and promotes regional stability. In Central Asia, China presents itself as a reliable economic partner, focusing on trade and collaboration. Its soft power efforts, largely government-driven, include educational exchanges, academic programs, and Confucius Institutes.

As of 2022, there are 492 Confucius Institutes and 819 Confucius Classrooms worldwide, with 13 Institutes in Central Asia (five in Kazakhstan, four in Kyrgyzstan, two in Uzbekistan, and two in Tajikistan). These Institutes foster cultural understanding and language education, integral to China’s regional strategy despite competition from other global powers like Russia.

Through strategic financial investments, trade agreements, and cultural initiatives, China aims to strengthen its influence in Central Asia, emphasizing economic cooperation while integrating soft power through cultural engagement and educational exchange.

Russia’s Cultural Diplomacy

In Central Asia, China and Russia vie for influence through cultural diplomacy. China employs Confucius Classrooms (CCs) to promote Chinese culture and language in the region, with 21 CCs in Kyrgyzstan, one in Kazakhstan, and two in Tajikistan, though Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan lack such institutions. Despite teaching Chinese, CCs struggle to reshape regional perceptions of China, focusing more on “minds” than hearts.

Russia’s cultural diplomacy dates back to the Soviet era, evolving into a modern strategy under leaders like Vladimir Putin and Sergey Lavrov since the early 2000s. Utilizing concepts like ‘sovereign democracy’ and institutions such as Rossotrudnichestvo, Russia operates over 85 Russian Houses in 71 countries to promote its language, culture, and values.

Central Asia, with its historical ties to Russia, remains pivotal for its cultural diplomacy efforts. The Russian language’s official status in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan facilitates inter-ethnic communication, while Russian universities attract many Central Asian students. Rossotrudnichestvo, the Russkiy Mir Fund, and the Gorchakov Fund further bolster Russian influence through educational and cultural initiatives.

Both China and Russia employ diverse soft power strategies in Central Asia. China focuses on language and cultural promotion through CCs, while Russia leverages historical ties and educational outreach. However, their success in altering perceptions and gaining lasting influence varies, highlighting the complexities of cultural diplomacy in the region.

Shifts in Russian Influence

The influence of Russian soft power in Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, has long been a significant aspect of the region’s media landscape. State-owned and state-backed Russian television channels, newspapers, and internet media outlets, including REN TV, NTV, Rossiya24, Izvestia, Komsomolskaya Pravda, Argumenty i Fakty, and Moskovsky Komsomolets, have a noticeable presence. These media outlets are often seen as instruments of Russian propaganda, competing fiercely with local journalists to maintain Russia’s position as a primary political and cultural reference point for Kazakh society.

However, Russia’s soft power has taken a substantial hit since the onset of the Ukraine war in early 2022. The Global Soft Power Index 2023 reports that Russia is the only country to have lost soft power influence in the past decade, slipping out of the top ten nations. This decline in influence is most evident in Central Asia, where postcolonial sentiments and decolonization processes have accelerated. Decolonization involves rethinking Soviet history, reassessing relations with Russia, and forming national identities free from external influence.

The erosion of Russian soft power is particularly evident as none of the Central Asian countries supported Russia’s annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan even allowed limited anti-war protests and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, unusual given the typically restricted civil society activities in the region. Experts suggest that Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine could further diminish its influence in Central Asia, potentially benefiting competitors like China.

China’s soft power strategy in Central Asia contrasts with Russia’s approach. China leverages its economic prowess through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), promoting infrastructure modernization and regional cooperation. However, historical Sinophobia and concerns about debt traps have hindered China’s efforts. Despite investments, negative perceptions of China persist among the local population.

Both Russia and China conduct their cultural diplomacy through state-funded and state-backed organizations, but their approaches differ. Russia emphasizes historical ties and the Russian language, while China focuses on economic cooperation. However, both strategies have shortcomings, particularly in engaging the local population and civil society. This disconnect has contributed to the challenges both countries face in fully realizing their soft power potential.

Despite the setbacks, Russia still holds some advantages over China in Central Asia. Shared language, common history, and cultural heritage give Russian soft power a stronger position. Russia remains a preferred destination for labor migration and education, attracting more students and workers from Central Asia than China. Russian media also maintains significant popularity in the region.

The competition for influence in Central Asia involves economic, cultural, and political spheres. The region’s young republics are not passive observers but active participants balancing external interests while pursuing their strategic objectives. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, understanding the interests, approaches, and strategies of Russia and China will be crucial for the development trajectory of Central Asian states.

The ongoing contest for influence in Central Asia highlights the complexities of soft power and cultural diplomacy. While Russia and China continue to vie for dominance, the region’s future will depend on how these external powers adapt their strategies to the changing dynamics and sentiments of Central Asian societies.

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