Analyst remains concerned about nitrogen fertilizer market – Brownfield Ag News

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Analyst remains concerned about nitrogen fertilizer market

An analyst is concerned about the future of the nitrogen fertilizer market.

Josh Linville from StoneX tells Brownfield he’s watching four areas that will greatly influence the price and availability of nitrogen, starting with Europe. “Their natural gas price is higher than what it would “historically” normally be, and that means that about 25% of their nitrogen production is still off line.”

Linville says he’s a little concerned because even with decent nitrogen prices, some facilities in Europe have not re-started production.

Linville says Brazilian plants are also shut down for many of the same reasons as Europe, and China has also cut production by order of the government. “From a urea standpoint, they are about 10% of the global marketplace with about five to five and a half million tons of exports per year.”

Linville says the hot weather in Egypt has prompted the government to limit industrial natural gas consumption to make sure consumers have enough fuel, and he says that creates uncertainty about production. “It’s that lack of information as far as like, hey, here’s when we’re going to get you supplies back and here is when you can expect to get production back up and going. It’s a little bit of a mystery and that’s what really hurts the fertilizer markets.”

Linville says India has announced their purchase intentions, but he says they might slash their order like last year and again disrupt the fertilizer markets.

When it comes to phosphate, Linville says prices are high with little or no relief in sight but potash supplies and prices are looking good for farmers.