Iceland volcano eruption update: Magma ‘very close’ to surface

The ground swelling near the Svartsengi power plant does not change the likelihood of an eruption from the nearby magma dyke, Iceland’s Met Office has said.

“The clear sign of crustal uplift in Svartsengi region does not change the likelihood of an eruption from the magma intrusion. This is assessed, amongst other things, on the fact that the Earth’s crust over the magma intrusion is much weaker than the crust over the uplift region close to Svartsengi,” the IMO said.

“As long as there is not significant seismicity in the Svartsengi region, there is not a high likelihood of an eruption at that location. Moreover, an eruption is still deemed more likely from the intrusion, particularly if there is a sudden, large inflow of magma into the intrusion.”

“Our monitoring and hazard assessment preparations are still based on the assumption that the situation could change suddenly with little warning,” added the statement, issued on Monday afternoon.

More than 700 earthquakes have been detected close to the magma dyke since midnight, according to the Icelandic Met Office – with the largest of the tremors a magnitude 2.7, close to Hagafell.

Recent days have seen between 1,500 and 1,800 daily earthquakes in the region, the national forecaster said in its update at 1:20pm.

Earthquakes occur as magma surges beneath the ground – in this case causing the ground itself to rise.

Children displaced by the evacuations will be given the opportunity to attend schools in the capital Reykjavic, officials have said.

Jóhanna Lilja Birgisdóttir, a senior psychologist at Grindavik’s social services department, told a press briefing this morning that there was no compulsory schooling for the town’s children, but that officials in neigbouring localities are working to ensure all have the opportunity to attend.

Firstly, all children are invited to go to school where the family is currently staying. In order to enroll a child in such a neighborhood school, parents must contact the school administrators of that school directly,” Ms Birgisdóttir was quoted as saying by national broadcaster RUV.

All children from Grindavík can also attend school together in several groups and accompanied by their teachers, in different parts of Reykjavik, hopefully from next Wednesday, she said.

Civil defence chief Víðir Reynisson added: “Our priority is to keep children together. We will try that in small groups in Reykjavík next week. Most of the displaced children are in the capital area.”

The densely-populated Reykjanes Peninsula potentially faces decades of instability, Iceland’s civil defence chief has reiterated.

Experts fear that the resumption of eruptions on the region – which neighbours the capital Reykjavic – in 2021 could mark a new “eruptive cycle” following an 800-year hiatus.

Asked about the long-term plan for the peninsula, civil defence chief Víðir Reynisson told reporters on Monday: “Our general risk assessment for the whole area says that when this episode starts (as it did in 2021) we should prepare for decades ahead.

“The highest risk scenario is the one we are looking at, a possible eruption around Grindavík.”

An eruption could happen anywhere along the magma dyke, Iceland’s civil defence chief has said, noting that officials’ “first priority” is protecting the Svartsengi power plant.

Asked at a press briefing on Monday morning where an eruption was most likely to occur, Víðir Reynisson said: “There is a lot of uncertainty. It is a 15km long dyke and it could happen anywhere.

“But the deformation data suggests just west of Þórbjörn, about 2km north of Grindavík, around 1.5km from the Svartsengi power station.

“Our first priority is protecting that plant but if that fails we are looking for backups. The power station provides hot water – used for heating – for around 30,000 people.”

If an eruption is going to occur in the magma dyke near Grindavik, it will likely be “within days”, Iceland’s civil defence chief has said.

According to Iceland’s national broadcaster RUV, Víðir Reynisson told reporters this morning: “We have very clear signs of magma along the dyke. It is estimated at less than 1km depth.

“Since then we have not seen signs of it getting closer to the surface. The likely time of something happening along the dyke, especially in the center, if it happens, is within days not weeks.

“If this continues without an eruption the chance of one decreases with time pretty rapidly. But then we see the changes at Svartsengi which possibly introduce the next stage of this.”

At a Civil Defence briefing last week, director Víðir Reynisson said there was significant damage to houses and pipes in the evacuated town of Grindavik, my colleague Athena Stavrou reports.

The fishing town has been the most affected area in Iceland, as the magma tunnel snakes beneath the ground leaving huge cracks in roads.

While the eruption is most likely to happen in Hagafell, there is a possibility that it could happen anywhere along the magma tunnel.

Mr Reynisson said: “This plus uncertainty about earthquakes means that residents have to prepare to live elsewhere in the coming months.”

Locals have been permitted to briefly enter their homes for five minutes this week to collect their valuables and pets but need prior authorisation.

Some 460 earthquakes have been recorded at the magma tunnel beneath the town of Grindavik since midnight, Iceland’s national broadcaster RUV reports.

That represents a slight increase in seismicity, with the largest tremor a magnitude 2.7.

Residents from Grindavik, the small Icelandic town under threat from a volcanic eruption, have described their ‘apocalyptic’ existence as they fear for their future.

Grindavik resident Andrea Ævarsdóttir, 46, told The Independent: “Everything just seems so unreal, I feel like I’m in a dystopian movie. I’m just waiting to wake up from this nightmare.”

The mother was getting ready to go into Reykjavík to celebrate her son Björgvin Hrafnar’s 16th birthday when their house started to shake on Friday.

“Some of them [the earthquakes] were like a big truck had driven past your house, the bigger ones were like the same truck had hit your house,” she said. “Everything was shaking so bad, the floors were going up and down.”

My colleague Lydia Patrick has more in this report: