General Elections 2024: Women voters take center stage once again

During the first four phases of the 2024 general elections, there was a notable increase in voter turnout compared to the 2019 elections. According to data from the Election Commission, a total of 45.1 crore voters cast their ballots in 2024, as opposed to 42.6 crore in 2019, representing an increase of 2.5 crore voters.

Domestic brokerage firm SBI Research conducted an analysis, which did not include votes such as postal and army ballots, revealing an overall increase of 1.9 crore voters.

Within this increase, female voters saw a rise of 93.6 lakh, while male voters increased by 84.7 lakh, hinting at the cementing of women as the new centre of gravity for Indian politics.

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This indicates a significant lead in female voter turnout compared to male voters, with approximately 110 female voters for every additional 100 male voters.

The brokerage undertook this analysis based on its conviction that the voter turnout ratio, while commonly recognised as a measure of public engagement in elections, is not always the most precise indicator.

Moreover, the brokerage cautioned that comparing the voter turnout ratio across various phases or elections could lead to misleading interpretations. Therefore, it opted to calculate the absolute number of voters who cast their votes in each constituency during the 2019 and 2024 elections using electoral data provided by the Election Commission of India (ECI) alongside the voter turnout ratio.

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The brokerage underscores that over the course of the last three successive elections, starting from 2014, 2019, and continuing into 2024, the average incremental voter turnout has been remarkable, standing at a substantial 8 crore.

This figure notably surpasses the previous trend, as the average incremental voter turnout for the 15 elections conducted before 2014 stood at a comparatively lower 2 crore.

The report showed that, Karnataka experienced the highest increase in the number of voters in 2024, with an addition of 35.5 lakh individuals. Among these, female voters accounted for 20.6 lakh, representing 58% of the total increase.

Similarly, Telangana also witnessed a significant rise in voter numbers, with an increase of 31.9 lakh compared to the 2019 figures.

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Conversely, Kerala observed the most substantial decline in the number of voters in 2024, with a decrease of 5.3 lakh individuals, followed by Manipur with a decline of 3.4 lakh voters.

So far, polling has progressed through four phases, encompassing 381 constituencies, which represents 70% of the total constituency count. Anticipating the conclusion of the fifth phase on May 20th, it is projected that approximately 80% of India’s populace will have exercised their voting rights.

Within the four completed phases of the 2024 general elections, there has been a cumulative voter turnout of 66.95%.

The brokerage analysis, based on the trends so far, indicates overall voter turnout for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections to come to around 67.5% under the base case scenario (almost equivalent to 67.7% in FY 2019).

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This is based on around 96 crore registered electors, of which 65.3 crore are expected to vote cumulatively in this election.

Meanwhile, the fifth phase of voting in India’s seven-phase election ends today.

The remaining two phases are slated for May 25 and June 1.

Subsequently, the culmination of this electoral spectacle will take place with the counting of votes on June 4.

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At its core, this election serves as the battleground for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), helmed by two-time Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), led by the primary opposition force, the Indian National Congress party.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.