Arsenal, Man United and a tale of two defences operating on completely different levels

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On Sunday, Arsenal can complete a league double over Manchester United for the first time since 2006-07. It would also be the first time they have won three in a row against them since between September 1998.

In what is the ultimate indictment of the power shift between the two clubs, Arsenal are expected to win at Old Trafford even with the pressure of it being their penultimate game in a title race.

For so long, victory at Old Trafford could only be prised if a team played beyond their limitations and United had a very bad day — even then, that combination was often not enough.

Now, Arsenal prepare to face Erik ten Hag’s side confident in the knowledge that an average performance should present them, remarkably, with at least 21 shots on goal. That is the number Manchester United have been conceding, on average, in games during 2024. They have allowed 317 shots, compared to Arsenal’s 132, and conceded 97 on target compared to Arsenal’s 30.

Even starker is that the number conceded this calendar year is 13 more than Arsenal have conceded in their entire 36-game season so far.

United are a team whose underlying defensive numbers are those of a team in the bottom third of the league. Arsenal’s are those of a team who are, by some distance, the best in the Premier League.

Arsenal vs Man Utd 2023-24

	Arsenal	Manchester United
Shots faced	304 (2nd)	618 (17th)
Shots on target faced	83 (1st)	194 (15th)
xG against	27.29 (1st)	64.48 (16th)
Goals against	28 (1st)	55 (joint 6th)

It is why, despite Arsenal’s 1-0 win in November 2020 being their only victory in the past 16 Premier League visits to Old Trafford, they travel to Manchester as heavy favourites, with recent trips to Brighton & Hove Albion, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Tottenham Hotspur seen as equally difficult, if not more so.

Last season, Arsenal’s confidence came from the way they started games with an attacking blitz, but this time it is as much about how they can keep the opposition from a meaningful sight of their goal for nigh-on the full 90 minutes in some cases.

Arsenal have conceded in only two of their past eight league games and David Raya has already collected the Golden Glove award, but with two games remaining, Arsenal could still end with 19 clean sheets.

It would be the first time they have reached that total in the 21st century, with previous highs of 23, 21 and 19 coming in 1999, 1994 and 1998 — although they remain some way off Chelsea’s record of 25 shutouts in 2004-05.

Arteta has relied upon seven or eight mainstays to form a team capable of sustaining title-challenging form.

There are dips but not major troughs like with United. But while Ten Hag’s side lack cohesion, their individual quality means they can be a dangerous animal when things click and they have momentum in a game.

By any metric, Arsenal are the stronger team, but they have now reached a level of consistency where their defensive numbers have remained low for two-and-a-half seasons, even if their attacking output has fluctuated in parts.

It gives them a solid base to fall back on in what is a low-scoring sport.

The addition of Declan Rice, the back four’s protector-in-chief, has strengthened Arsenal and with the return of Thomas Partey to the starting line-up, they are trending towards their lowest numbers under Arteta when it comes to direct attacks on their goal, which now stands at fewer than two per game.

Key to Arsenal conceding the fewest goals in the league has been their ability to suppress shots. When defending leads in games against rival clubs or in European competition, they have been happy to sit deep and protect their advantage for periods of a game.

Of all the opposition possession sequences that end in the Arsenal third, only 33 per cent result in a shot. It is the second-best figure in the league in a table that Manchester United sit second bottom of, on 46 per cent.

United regularly leave massive gaps in the middle of the pitch, caught between two clashing ideas of pressing from the front and sitting deep to protect defenders ill-suited to that front-foot approach.

Arsenal’s trio of Gabriel, William Saliba and Ben White provide them with the gifts of availability and reliability, but they are also tailor-made for the aggressive style of play Arsenal employ.

In Arteta’s first full season, their average defensive line was 22 metres from their goal, but that has crept further forward year-on-year to the extent it is now 8m higher.

It is a huge difference and underpins how Arsenal are able to press with conviction, knowing they are compact with no gaping holes in front of the defence.

Arsenal play with a clear identity on the ball, but out of possession, they are just as cohesive.

Kai Havertz has spearheaded the press as a centre-forward in eight of the past 11 league games, which has made them a stronger all-round team.

They will force United to go long, but if Ten Hag’s side try to play through them, they are more than capable of counter-attacking. That, remember, is the aspect of the game United’s manager said he wanted his side to become the best in the world at when speaking earlier in the season.

High regains are a key part of Arsenal’s game and 23 per cent of them end in a shot. They are now getting that shot away much quicker when the opposition shape is disorganised, pulling the trigger within 10 seconds of a regain just under 10 per cent of the time.

To capture the speed of change since that 1-0 win at Old Trafford in 2020, only four players remain a part of Arteta’s squad. Despite having three different managers in that time, United have nine survivors but little progress to show for that familiarity.

In games against the “Big Six” this season, Arsenal have conceded nine goals in as many games. United are at 20 and with goal difference a factor should Manchester City slip up and Arsenal take full points, they will be in a punishing mood.

As much as this is a tale of two contrasting defences, it is also about one team thriving against the elite and the other floundering.

United have taken only six points from 27 against the other “Big Six” clubs this season compared to Arsenal’s tally of 19. It is equal to their total last season, which was a massive leap forward from an average of 10.5 points out of 30 in the 13 years beforehand.

Only Manchester City’s record of 25 from a possible 30 in 2018-19 would beat it, but they lost a game that year, which Arsenal are yet to do.

Arsenal’s Covid-era victory in 2020 felt momentous because of how far out of the picture they had fallen. In the three-and-a-half years since, Arteta has got his team to a psychological place where they are comfortable in their own skin going to these once intimidating grounds.

(Top photo: Alex Pantling/Getty Images)