It’s official: Andrew Warren is running. Now, does he have a chance?

At Tampa’s Martin Luther King Jr. Parade last year — a must-attend event for local pols — here came Suzy Lopez, Hillsborough’s state attorney, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis after he booted Andrew Warren from the job in a political firestorm.

As Lopez handed out beads and waved to paradegoers, Warren was greeting crowds and posing for pictures just down the parade route. Warren, who was fighting his ouster in the courts, wore a T-shirt declaring himself Hillsborough State Attorney. Lopez’s claim to the office was spelled out across her sun visor.

Now it’s official: Warren declared Tuesday he will try to wrest the job back from Lopez in the November election. Both candidates will claim to be the rightful officeholder for the position each wants to keep.

Warren, who previously announced he would not run, said he changed his mind after a recent favorable federal appeals court ruling.

Already the candidates are taking aim.

“She walks into that building every day, pretending to be the acting state attorney,” said Warren. “That’s a slap in the face to the voters of Hillsborough County and an attack on the rule of law.”

And from the Lopez campaign’s senior strategist Ryan Smith: “Warren is soft on crime and more concerned about experimenting with the law than upholding it.”

Contrasting criminal justice visions

In his five years in office, Democrat Warren embraced alternatives to prosecution and enacted policies aimed at improving fairness in the justice system, correcting practices that burden the poor and guarding against prosecutorial mistakes.

Republican Lopez espouses a more traditional approach of tough prosecution. That includes pursuing cases for both major and minor crimes, seeking harsher consequences for criminals and stronger support of law enforcement.

Warren’s philosophy made him a champion of progressives and caught the attention of the conservative Republican governor, who accused him of refusing to enforce the law.

Lopez, meanwhile, enjoys robust support from police, though she has received skepticism from the local African American community, among others. One of her first acts was to rescind a policy Warren enacted that discouraged prosecuting cases arising from police bicycle and pedestrian stops, a practice linked to racial disparities.

She got a chilled response when she spoke in March to the local NAACP, as first reported by WTSP-Channel 10.

“You don’t understand how law enforcement treats us,” Yvette Lewis, president of the Hillsborough chapter, said at the meeting.

Lewis later told the Tampa Bay Times she was troubled that Lopez seemed to defer to law enforcement in making decisions.

“We need someone to look at a case with two open eyes and not one,” Lewis said. “We all want to live in safe communities.“

Tough on crime will no doubt resonate with many voters. Tom Gaitens, a Republican state committee person in Hillsborough, said now is “a wonderful time to be the law-and-order candidate.”

Former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat, said law enforcement is “firmly in Suzy’s corner, and that will matter in this election.”

Still, Warren is not unaware of the importance of a top prosecutor having an anti-crime attitude. The first bullet point on his campaign announcement touts a reduction in crime while he was in office.

“I made promises and I kept those promises,” he said.

Lopez has money. Warren has work to do.

Lopez, running since November, has both money and support.

As of this month, her campaign fundraising tally stands at almost a half-million dollars. Her supporters include Hillsborough Sheriff Chad Chronister and former Tampa police Chief Brian Dugan, along with numerous prominent local lawyers.

But will that support translate to votes?

“The people that know the players the best in races like this oftentimes are the worst ones to ask about who’s going to win,” said Tampa attorney Paul Sisco, who is supporting Lopez. “Because we know what lawyers think and it’s such a small percentage of the Hillsborough vote. You’re far better off asking the folks on tractors in Plant City than the guys at the courthouse.”

Buckhorn predicts voters in differing camps: “the partisan camp that is going to vote Democrat or Republican; those that are so offended by how DeSantis removed Warren they will vote for him, and some of those may be Republicans; and those who think Suzy Lopez is doing a better job,” he said.

He said it’s all about voter turnout, with issues including marijuana and abortion on the ballot expected to drive voters to the polls.

Notably, Warren’s announcement includes a mention of “a woman’s right to choose.”

Will big money come in?

Immediately after he declared his candidacy Tuesday, Warren posted social media messages asking for donations through ActBlue, a national Democrat fundraising platform.

As a political newcomer in 2016, much of his financial backing came from outside Hillsborough County. Rumors circulated of support from billionaire philanthropist George Soros, who was known to have given to other progressive prosecutor candidates nationwide. Warren acknowledged in a 2020 interview that some of the money he received from the state Democratic party may have originated from Soros, but said he had little insight about that.

He had more local support when he won reelection over Republican Mike Perotti.

In an interview with the Times this week, Warren didn’t elaborate on where he might draw financial help.

“I think there’s no doubt there’s going to be national money in this race … people who don’t like (DeSantis) will be bringing money in,” said Mark Proctor, a local Republican campaign consultant who works on judicial races. “On the other side, pro-DeSantis, there may be some money coming in.”

Proctor predicted local lawyers supporting Lopez might now give money to Warren as well.

“I think (Warren’s) got an awful lot of support,” said former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman, a Democrat.

Ione Townsend, chairperson of the Hillsborough Democratic Party, said Warren’s late entry into the race may put him at a financial disadvantage. But she suspects his suspension may bolster the support he gets.

“My sense is that this story did go national to some extent,” she said. “He worked in Washington. So I think that there will be some money coming from his connections from outside.

“But I think the majority will come from Hillsborough County,” she said.

Democrats hold a slight advantage over Republicans in Hillsborough in their number of registered voters. The years that Warren was in office saw the county’s elections trending toward Democrats. That changed in 2022 when DeSantis handily won Hillsborough County in his race for reelection, with several local Republican candidates riding his coattails to victory. Now he’s projecting Hillsborough will soon swing Republican.

Another factor that could influence the campaign is that Warren has an opponent in the Democratic primary: first-time candidate Elizabeth Martinez Strauss, a Tampa attorney and Democrat who got in the race when Warren’s plans were uncertain. Strauss has said she will remain a candidate unless the courts reinstate Warren by Friday’s qualifying deadline — an unlikely prospect.

DeSantis’ removal of Warren raised strong opinions

Prominent Tampa attorney Ralph Fernandez said he sent Warren’s defense fund $10,000 the day after DeSantis suspended him.

“I have known Suzy Lopez decades and she is a wonderful person,” Fernandez said via email. “But the rule of law governs and I proudly support Andrew and will help him regain his seat as the rightful choice of the people. My sign is up, my fundraising has started.”

At Lopez’s campaign kickoff last year, she told the crowd DeSantis had made “one of the boldest moves in Florida political history” by suspending Warren and appointing her.

From the crowd came a whistle. “Well done!” someone shouted.

How we got here

It all started in August 2022 with the governor’s surprise suspension of the twice-elected state attorney and former federal prosecutor. DeSantis pointed to statements Warren signed with other leaders around the nation pledging not to prosecute cases involving abortion or transgender health care. He also cited Warren’s policies that discouraged prosecution of some low-level crimes.

DeSantis replaced him with Lopez, a longtime Tampa prosecutor and political ally.

Warren sued DeSantis in federal court, saying the suspension violated his free speech rights. He called it a political stunt by a governor then readying for a presidential run. A judge largely sided with Warren, but concluded he didn’t have authority to restore him to office.

Warren appealed. In January, with the case still pending, he announced he wouldn’t run for reelection because, he said, DeSantis would likely suspend him again if he won. Two days later, the appeals court ruled in Warren’s favor, ordering the judge to reconsider the case — including the part about not having the power to put him back in office.

With the election qualifying deadline looming and the possibility of reinstatement, Warren announced he would indeed challenge Lopez.

The case has not been sent back to the judge for reconsideration. But it raises the possibility that Warren could be put back in office to serve out whatever is left of his term before the November election.

The race, Proctor predicted, “is going to be fascinating.”