15 Battleground Counties Key to the 2024 Presidential Election

The presidential election officially is decided by the states through the Electoral College. But to fully understand the race’s dynamics, it also helps to look one level down – at counties.

That’s what U.S. News has done through a series examining 15 battleground counties that could prove key in this year’s race for the White House.

Eleven of the 15 counties are located in the seven presidential swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – on the logic that a county’s electoral leverage is greater when it sits in the most competitive states. Three of the remaining four counties are in large states that are on the periphery of competitiveness – Florida and Texas – and one county is in a category all its own because it sits in Nebraska, which allocates some of its electoral votes by congressional district.

Because political geography today usually correlates with population density – denser cities and suburbs tend to be bluer, while rural areas are usually redder – the 15 counties comprising this list are probably tilted a bit toward Democratic-leaning areas. Still, goals were to include counties of different sizes and different partisan trajectories. Seven of the jurisdictions on the list are large urban-suburban counties, three are purely suburban and the remaining five are anchored by a midsize city rather than a large metropolis.

The counties offer a mix of racial, ethnic and income demographics. Also, each is in some degree of political transition. How those transitions proceed – and how they balance each other out – could impact who wins the presidency in 2024.

Here’s more on U.S. News’ 15 key counties to watch in the 2024 presidential race, along with links to their full profiles.

This blue-collar county, home to Green Bay, is politically divided between its urban and rural populations. It leans Republican, but Democrats are usually competitive.

This county, which includes Las Vegas, is home to almost three-quarters of Nevada’s population, giving it massive influence over who wins the hotly contested swing state.

This suburb north of Atlanta is part of another swing state and has become more racially and ethnically diverse over the past two decades, shifting from Republican to Democratic in the process.

This county, home to Omaha, accounts for most of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which under state law has one electoral vote. Unlike the rest of Nebraska, the county has backed Democratic nominees Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

This county, home of the city of Erie, is “a bellwether area in a bellwether state.” No county in Pennsylvania – and possibly in the country – is as consistently swingy as Erie County.

Texas remains red, but it has become incrementally bluer. One reason for this shift stems from suburban areas like Fort Bend County. There, the pro-Democratic shift has been driven by two factors: growing racial and ethnic diversity and rising levels of educational attainment.

Home to Grand Rapids, Kent County is Michigan’s fourth-most-populous county. For decades, Kent County voted Republican; it was the home of President Gerald Ford and is the site of his presidential library. But in recent years, Kent County has become politically purple, and sometimes even bluish.

This county in northeastern Pennsylvania is important for both its demographics and its symbolism. It’s disproportionately blue-collar, with lots of voters like those that have become the core of Trump’s electoral base. Yet it’s also the ancestral home of Biden, who loves to style himself as “Scranton Joe,” after the county’s biggest city.

Maricopa County is home to Phoenix and the politically competitive heart of one of the key presidential swing states: Arizona. The county includes voters belonging to several demographic groups that both campaigns will be targeting this year: Hispanics, moderate suburban Republicans and older adults.

This heavily Hispanic county has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election this century, but the trend lines have turned away from the party during the Trump era. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Trump in the county by a 29-point margin; in 2020, Biden defeated Trump by just 7 points.

Tarrant County, which includes the Fort Worth portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, has been drifting toward the Democrats in recent elections, much like highly populated areas elsewhere. But the shift has been less dramatic in Tarrant than in counties that are more diverse and affluent.

This higher-income, well-educated county – which includes the state capital of Raleigh – once leaned modestly Republican. But since Obama’s first presidential run in 2008, Democrats have won Wake County by generally increasing margins.

While Las Vegas-based Clark County accounts for the vast majority of Nevada voters, elections in the closely divided state often come down to who wins swingy Washoe County, home to Reno.

This county remains Republican but to a far lesser extent than it used to be, in a shift echoed in other higher-income U.S. suburbs during the Trump era. The modest but steady Republican erosion of Waukesha County is notable, given how narrowly divided – and pivotal – Wisconsin is in presidential politics.

This home of Detroit is Michigan’s most populous county and is crucial for Democratic hopes of winning the state. Historically, Wayne County has voted strongly Democratic, but Republicans have made incremental gains there during the Trump era.